Economically Viable Net Neutral Global Carbon Emissions: Is it time for action?
According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate a Change, IPCC, we are at an "unprecedented" level of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in at least the last 800,000 years. This data is comparing current greenhouse gasses to ice core samples back to 800,000 years ago. The full report is due out Sept. 30, 2013 from working group 1 contribution to the fifth assessment. The summary suggests that the last three decades have been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. The report is also claiming with virtual certainty, 99 plus percentage, that the upper ocean has warmed from 1971 to 2010. Water has a latent heat property, which means it takes longer to store heat and release heat. Ocean warming can be significant due to, actions humankind may take to reduce greenhouse gasses, may have a delayed effect as the oceans will be releasing heat back into the atmosphere as the earth cools. The report shows high confidence that the ice sheets have lost mass, snow cover in the northern hemisphere is less since the mid 20th century. Many areas get their fresh water supply from high mountain snow that is stored in reservoirs during the spring runoff. Less snow could mean reduced water supply for urban populations. Data continues to show increasing mean sea level due to global warming. The report goes through much data that shows a high certainty a connection to human activity and global warming.
In the report they state that 15 to 40% of emitted carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. The models from the working group predict that the trend for warmer temperatures, reduced ice sheets and increasing sea level will continue, even if we curb greenhouse gas emissions going forward. Studies have already suggested that a mean global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would have irreversible effects on sea levels and weather patterns. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in the report that it is “extremely likely” human beings are the main drivers for the rise in temperatures recorded around the world over the last 50 years. In fact carbon dioxide concentrations have increased 40% since preindustrial times. In this IPCC report, the scientists estimate that 2-degree target would be reached when industrial carbon dioxide emissions add up to 1 trillion tons. We have already emitted 531 billion tons by 2011, and at this rate it could be less than a century away from hitting the 1 trillion level.
In reading the report, I came away with the sense that we may already be on a "run away climate warming freight train." When I think that we must leave this world to generations to come, it seems to me, the time for action is now. We could take to heart the backpackers credo - "leave no trace" meaning to leave your campsite better than you found it. Even if we stop the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, it looks like the next 40 generations will feel the effects of the mid-20th century industrial revolution. That is quite sobering?
We need to move from data taking to action. The world should push for net neutral carbon emissions immediately. The challenge does not seem to so much technology, but how to bring cleaner energy in a competitive and cost effective business model. This is not as easy as just throwing a switch or changing policies overnight. We have to understand how to economically support such change to prevent global depression, famine, social unrest that could be caused by rapid energy price increases. A global energy plan driven by regional based renewables with a supporting economic plan must be our first step. Once we achieve this, we can set some focus on sequestering the existing carbon with a goal to "leave no trace."
You can find the report on their website: IPCC.ch
According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate a Change, IPCC, we are at an "unprecedented" level of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in at least the last 800,000 years. This data is comparing current greenhouse gasses to ice core samples back to 800,000 years ago. The full report is due out Sept. 30, 2013 from working group 1 contribution to the fifth assessment. The summary suggests that the last three decades have been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850. The report is also claiming with virtual certainty, 99 plus percentage, that the upper ocean has warmed from 1971 to 2010. Water has a latent heat property, which means it takes longer to store heat and release heat. Ocean warming can be significant due to, actions humankind may take to reduce greenhouse gasses, may have a delayed effect as the oceans will be releasing heat back into the atmosphere as the earth cools. The report shows high confidence that the ice sheets have lost mass, snow cover in the northern hemisphere is less since the mid 20th century. Many areas get their fresh water supply from high mountain snow that is stored in reservoirs during the spring runoff. Less snow could mean reduced water supply for urban populations. Data continues to show increasing mean sea level due to global warming. The report goes through much data that shows a high certainty a connection to human activity and global warming.
In the report they state that 15 to 40% of emitted carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years. The models from the working group predict that the trend for warmer temperatures, reduced ice sheets and increasing sea level will continue, even if we curb greenhouse gas emissions going forward. Studies have already suggested that a mean global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would have irreversible effects on sea levels and weather patterns. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in the report that it is “extremely likely” human beings are the main drivers for the rise in temperatures recorded around the world over the last 50 years. In fact carbon dioxide concentrations have increased 40% since preindustrial times. In this IPCC report, the scientists estimate that 2-degree target would be reached when industrial carbon dioxide emissions add up to 1 trillion tons. We have already emitted 531 billion tons by 2011, and at this rate it could be less than a century away from hitting the 1 trillion level.
In reading the report, I came away with the sense that we may already be on a "run away climate warming freight train." When I think that we must leave this world to generations to come, it seems to me, the time for action is now. We could take to heart the backpackers credo - "leave no trace" meaning to leave your campsite better than you found it. Even if we stop the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, it looks like the next 40 generations will feel the effects of the mid-20th century industrial revolution. That is quite sobering?
We need to move from data taking to action. The world should push for net neutral carbon emissions immediately. The challenge does not seem to so much technology, but how to bring cleaner energy in a competitive and cost effective business model. This is not as easy as just throwing a switch or changing policies overnight. We have to understand how to economically support such change to prevent global depression, famine, social unrest that could be caused by rapid energy price increases. A global energy plan driven by regional based renewables with a supporting economic plan must be our first step. Once we achieve this, we can set some focus on sequestering the existing carbon with a goal to "leave no trace."
You can find the report on their website: IPCC.ch